Doc's 'The forecast for the year 2009'

These are the slides of today's 2009 Year End Review.

http://www.mediafire.com/?1gjmyzzznnl

Doc's Forecast, 12/8/09

Initial High/Lows, 12/7/09

Comments: USD weakening move. GBP makes nominal rise.

Initial High/Lows, 12/4/09

Comments:
As Doc said, players are staying out of the market for whatever reason. Wait and see.

Initial High/Lows, 12/3/09

Observations:
E/U and G/U made rise. Contrarian move in U/J to handle G/J and E/J. Dollar weakening in the denominator UChf and UCad and A/U.

E/U and G/U are near highs, if they don't break in 30 mins, I'll take sell positions.

Initial High/Lows, 12/2/09

Doc's Webinar, Trades 2, 11/13/09

Doc's Webinar, Trades, 11/13/09

Doc's Webinar, Hi/Lo, 11/13/09

Doc's Webinar, Forecast, 11/13/09

Doc's Forecast, 11/11/09

Initial High/Lows, 11/11/09

Blowing An Account

I have an account with FXCM UK. They have a good platform and good customer service. I started with $2000.

Today I have $32.67. Why?

1. Taking on too much risk. I was placing orders of 30k and 60k lots. Quite stupid of me because that's $150 and $300 margin.
   
2. Greed. I wanted 50pip winners when there were 25-30 point winners that I missed.
   
3. Overtrading. Placing more than one position and more than one hedge when market went against me. On one trade I had 3 shorts and 2 longs. Then I got margin called.
   

My Market Tracking Platform

Notes from Webinar, 11/5/09

-EG upward stop hunt 0.90 and drop
-UJ contrarian move with EG. Yesterday Yen cross rise then drop.
-Players alternatively trap players. Understand long term trend.
-EG UJ drop, trypical contrarian during japanese session. Drop Yen, then drop EG.
-UChf, EU -22, +9 positive, will drop, then rise. Below 1.51, down stop hunt, then rise.
-AU, came to high 0.9110, will drop.
-UCad, accumulated shorts, now rise.
-Only make Yen contrarian moves.
-For data release moves: Above high, then low hit stops, then go above, then drop below

EURO: 1.4867 then drop
GDP: volatile moves, go above high then drop
UChf: making consolidating to drop, then rise
UJ: open lower and will make drop towards close of Japanese session
AU: holding closer to low, rise then drop
UCad: similar to UChf, will rise and fall

-During month beginning, trend reversal time.
-Trade denominator currencies, end of drops. Take buy when they hit lows.
-Slow drops will be for days, Quick drops will reverse.
-EU GU, before data they make false move. grab profit quickly. After data, wait for 30 mins, settle price, then take position if high/low not being cut.
-Positions trading, take a positions with 1 mini lot, then if it goes against, average you position with another mini lot 100 pips away.
-Markets expected to drop until Nov. 11. Subject to change depending on whether the drops are quick or slow.

Initial High/Lows, 11/5/09

Doc's Forecast, 11/5/09

Doc's Play for FOMC

Before annoucnement there will be drop, after announce quick rise, stop cutting high for 10-30 mins take sell. take a sell near new high. 

Now what we can expect during US session?

They could slide during start of US session instead of late European session.then after swings for 15:00  and 15;30 GMT data they could swing and slide till mid US session before making a false move ( rise) before FOMC data release time -19:15 GMT.Then after some volatile moves they are expected to induce traders to anticipate BOE and ECB interest rate decisions.

The forecast algorithm expects slide and drop-let us see whether the players make it in line with the expectations.

The players are making the upward stop hunts in a hurry and gained levels before FOMC as they intend to make the downward spike without much volatile moves.trade with hedging order to limit the risk.Once the drop is initiated they could make it massive other way.

I meant in the post -after the massive rise of today,after FOMC they are expected to make massive drop and continue till next event BOE and ECB interest rate announcement time.

Regards

dr.Sivaraman.

Initial High/Lows, 11/4/09

Doc's Forecast, 11/4/09

US, Short GU, 11/3/09

I'm holding 2 shorts 6339 and 6400. And one long hedge at 6384. I have another hedge ready at 6430.
Edit: Shorts @ 6339, 6384, 6410. Long hedge @ 6384.

Doc's Addendum II, 11/3/09

Euro and GBP made the slide and drop till close of European session as expected by the forecast model.Euro  and GBP made negative net change of 150 pips and making small firming up moves.

can they drop more?

Euro and GBP are expected to drop more after brief pull back during start of US session.They may be sell opportunities near initial lows of the day set during early japanese session.

Tomorrow, for FOMC rate decision, before hand  the market is expected to swing and slide more to net permissable level of the day and  then expected to make volatile moves during FOMC rate announcement time to drop more for BOE and ECB rate announcements expected to be announced day after tomorrow.Then further drop for NFP data release.

 I will give more detailed expected market moves for those days during the respective days.

Regards

Dr.Sivaraman

London, Short GU, 11/3/09

Short GU @ 1.6300 @ 5:34am,est

Doc's Addendum, 11/3/09

"They are expected to swing up for GBP data and then slide and drop towards close of European session.They are expected to swing during start of US session to slide and drop towards close of US session.USD/YEN is also expected to drop along with them and then recover from late US session. Regards, Dr.Sivaraman"

There's a 5:30am,est GDP data release.

Asian, Long GU & AU, 11/3/09

Low of Asian session for both pairs have not been cut for more than 30 minutes, so I take a long.

Long GU @ 1.63756 @ 12:34 AM, EST

Long AU @ 0.89870 @ 12:35 AM, EST

Initial High/Lows, 11/3/09

Doc's Forecast, 11/3/09